Sunday, 16 December, 2018

Crude Market: Oil dips below $50 on output doubts

Oil has remained in an oversold territory this month and seesawed near the US$50 threshold this week- a key budgetary marker for shale drillers WTI oil price slides under $50 per barrel
Kelvin Reese | 01 December, 2018, 04:59

The WTI Crude Oil market initially pulled back during the trading session on Thursday but found enough support just below the $50 level to turn things around.

Investors are focused on this weekend's G-20 summit in Argentina, where leaders from the U.S., Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia - the world's three biggest oil producers - will gather in a prelude to OPEC's meeting next week in Vienna.

Fundamentally, investors remain concerned about the continuous flow of USA supply along with new worries that Saudi Arabia is insisting that it will not cut production on its own to stabilize supply and prices.

The price of Brent has slumped by more than 30 percent from a four-year high above $86 in early October, pressured by concerns that supply will exceed demand in 2019 as economic growth slows.

The price of oil has fallen by just over a fifth since the end of October and by almost a third over the past two months, in declines not seen since 2008. With fears of a scarcity now giving way to worries about oversupply, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russian Federation are preparing to discuss more cuts when they meet next week in Vienna.

The chart shows the cost of production of oil and gas per barrel for the countries by using data from Rystad Energy UCube and The Wall Street Journal.

Industry insiders disclosed to Reuters that Russian Federation was increasingly convinced that it needed to cut oil productions and would discuss "how quickly and by how much" the reduction to take place.

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"We are in contact with OPEC and we are ready to continue our joint efforts if needed", Putin said.

While gasoline supplies in the United States unexpectedly fell last week, which led to slight gains in oil prices, they were not enough to overcome the pessimism of the news of an oil supply increase in the country.

The cooperation had been a "a 100 percent" success, Putin said, adding that this was largely due to Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the "initiator" of the deal. Meanwhile, the specter of expanding USA crude stockpiles has also been haunting the market. "As Saudi Arabia we can not do it alone, we will not do it alone".

"Furthermore, our partners are helping us by introducing all these unlawful restrictions and violating principles of the global trade, because the whole world sees the dollar monopoly is unreliable; it is unsafe for many, not only for us", he said. "Against this backdrop, the most likely outcome of next week's OPEC meeting is a fudge".

Saudi Arabia can not afford another slump in oil prices.

By August 2018, Saudi Arabia's production was up by 630,000 barrels per day compared with June 2014 and Russia's output had climbed by 525,000 bpd.

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