Saturday, 17 November, 2018

Wet and mild: Warm winter predicted for much of the U.S.

NOAA predicting mild winter in New England – Boston News, Weather, Sports NOAA releases 2018-19 Winter Outlook
Derrick Tucker | 22 October, 2018, 02:59

"We expect El Niño to be in place in late fall to early winter", said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Meteorologists predict theres a 75 percent chance itll be around this winter. It is expected to be weaker than the El Nino that developed during the 2015/2016 winter.

In the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February, above-average temperatures are most likely across the northern and western U.S., Alaska and Hawaii.

In the valley of the Tennessee, the OH valley and mid-Atlantic States (NJ, NY, MD and PA), the temperature will be or on the secondary level or above. During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the USA can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

Of course, forecasting the weather is notoriously hard and the predictions made by the forecasters are subject to change.

Because of the uncertainty in seasonal prediction, NOAA's winter outlook is probabilistic in nature, meaning that a range of outcomes is possible in any area.

An El Niño is an irregularly occurring atmospheric event caused by the development of a warm band of ocean water off the Pacific coast of South America.

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For those looking for snowfall projections, you won't find those in NOAA's winter outlook.

Hawaii, Montana, Michigan, parts of Idaho, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Indiana and OH are forecast to be drier than normal, with the biggest likelihood in Hawaii, Montana and Michigan.

"All things being equal, the slight kick we get out of the climate signal does tilt things toward the warm side", Halpert said; cautioning, however, that that's not enough to outweigh other factors if they push toward cold. Northern Florida and southern Georgia have the greatest odds for above-average precipitation this winter. "The maps show only the most likely category with higher probability indicating greater confidence".

The Farmer's Almanac said that for its winter outlook, the temperatures are going to be cold with "plenty of snow".

NOAA also doesn't forecast specific snow ranges for the season as there's very little accuracy this far out.

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