Tuesday, 18 December, 2018

OPEC, allies agree not to further increase oil production

Saudi energy minister rips Trump tweet: 'I do not influence oil prices' Trump tweet biggest insult to US allies in ME: Iran
Kelvin Reese | 27 September, 2018, 08:33

USA crude futures were down 13 cents, or 0.2 per cent, at $72.15 a barrel.

Mercuria Energy Group Ltd.co-founder Daniel Jaeggi said prices may spike to over $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter because the market doesn't have much capacity left to replace more than 2 million barrels a day of Iranian exports that could be lost to sanctions.

OPEC also ignored US President Trump's request to lower oil prices by increasing output, keeping oil prices well supported.

Oil is maintaining strong bullish momentum, with daily MA's in full bullish configuration, supporting the advance.

Trump wants the Saudis to boost production to prevent oil prices from rising, while his administration is re-imposing sanctions on Iran, OPEC's third largest oil producer and Riyadh's main regional rival.

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The country's producers continue to "monitor closely the supply and demand and we will respond in the appropriate manner and at the appropriate time, as may be necessary", said the saudi minister.

Iran told OPEC its production had been steady in August at 3.8 million bpd.

OPEC said that global oil demand is set to increase by 14.5 MMbpd by 2040, to 111.7 MMbpd.

Iran's OPEC governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili
Iran's OPEC governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili

Mohammad Barkindo, secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said in Madrid that it is important for OPEC and its partners, including Russian Federation, to cooperate to ensure they do not "fall from one crisis to another".

Non-member production overall is forecast to rise by 8.6 mbd to 66.1 mbd by 2023 on higher global demand, the report added, but a relative tapering off from 2020 will see cartel members' crude production shrug off a medium-term trend fall, OPEC predicted.

Saudi Arabia says it has almost 2 million barrels per day of spare production capacity to be exploited.

But the joint OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial committee known as the JMMC, which meets on Sunday, can still recommend a further increase in output if needed, the sources said.

Opec leader Saudi Arabia and its biggest oil-producer ally outside the group, Russia, on Sunday ruled out any immediate extra increase in output, effectively rebuffing a call by per cent President Donald Trump for action to cool the market. The meeting was attended by 20 participating producing countries of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC), demonstrating their commitment to sustainable oil market stability, said the final communiqué.

Expect a popular backlash if India's government raises diesel prices to halt the subsidy drain on its finances - not only from the millions of poor who need cheap fuel but from increasing numbers of the well-off and businesses who don't.

Oil prices are now hovering uncertainly amid dwindling exports from Iran, poor production from other OPEC members and Brazil, decelerating output growth in the United States, and an uncertain consumption outlook.

However, many industry executives maintained a cautious stance as OPEC may struggle to fully make up for the potential loss of Iranian barrels in the worldwide market over the coming months, if not years.

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