Monday, 16 July, 2018

Oil Surges Above $75 in NY as Supply Outages Outpace OPEC

Iran to allow private sector to export oil, beat US sanctions Oil falls as OPEC output rises, more production planned
Kelvin Reese | 05 July, 2018, 01:00

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed with Russian Federation and other oil-producing allies on June 23 to raise output from July, with Saudi Arabia pledging a "measurable" supply boost, but giving no specific numbers.

"The Iranian government has a plan. and God willing we are certain that we will be able to sell as much oil as we want", he said.

The president, in an interview with Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo", also said he would not complete a new NAFTA trade deal with Canada and Mexico until after the November congressional elections.

Vijay Valecha, chief market analyst at Century Financial Brokers, said the UAE's crude oil production peaked in October 2016 at 3.13 million bpd and has declined since then in line with the Opec production cuts.

Trump is pressuring allies to stop buying Iranian oil as a tactic to make Iranian leaders negotiate a new nuclear deal, after he pulled out of the 2015 agreement two months ago.

If Mr Trump's tweets are taken as policy, it means the United States is assuming a 2 million barrel-a-day increase is readily available from the Saudis, a relationship that has already been leveraged "to the maximum extent".

Brian Hook, the State Department's director of policy planning, told a news conference that the US goal was to get as many countries as possible down to zero Iranian oil imports.

Turkey has also said it would keep up Iranian crude imports, while China, the largest consumer of Iranian crude oil, has criticised the USA for withdrawing from the deal.

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Looming US sanctions against Iran further contribute to expected tightness.

The White House said Saturday that King Salman had promised President Donald Trump that he would raise oil production if needed.

Unsurprisingly, Mr Trump's Twitter demands for increase in oil production and threats to OPEC "do not automatically create the pricing changes that he sought", said Ms Young.

"We are working to minimize disruptions to the global market, but we are confident there is sufficient global spare oil capacity", Hook said. Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell 2 million barrels last week, according to a separate forecast compiled by Bloomberg.

This was due to outages around the world from Libya to Canada and Venezuela are keeping priced elevated.

"Also, taking a broad range of estimates from IEA, EIA and others, Saudi held spare capacity in the range of 1.3 - 2.1 mb/d when oil production was ~10 mb/d".

"Yes, of course. That's what we're doing".

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