Thursday, 15 November, 2018

Russia, Saudi Arabia Extend Oil Partnership Indefinitely

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister may face his toughest test when OPEC members meet. Bloomberg’s Heesu Lee reports Saudi Arabia’s energy minister may face his toughest test when OPEC members meet. Bloomberg’s Heesu Lee reports
Kelvin Reese | 22 June, 2018, 15:58

Brent crude futures were at $74.70 per barrel at 0611 GMT, down 64 cents, or 0.9 percent, from their last close. "The Opec/non-Opec cartel is the big beneficiary of all this oil diplomacy, as it will squeeze global spare oil capacity and likely push up crude prices". The amount of increased oil output that is being discussed in the framework of the OPEC + agreement is fully correlated with the decline made by Venezuela in the last 1.5 years.

USA oil exports have boomed in the last two years as shale oil production has surged, with China becoming one of the biggest buyers.

Notably, the present deal, effective Jan 1, 2017, requires global oil producers to lower their collective output by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to the end of 2018 to shed huge stockpiles.

EIA projects that USA crude oil production will average 10.8 million barrels per day for full-year 2018, up from 9.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2017, and will average 11.8 million bpd in 2019.

Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in NY, said indications from OPEC members and other large producers on the scale of potential production increases would drive the oil market this week.

The cut has since then pushed up the price of crude oil by about 50 percent. Those who hate me call me crude."I worry for my future; everyone now talks down on me".

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Supply disruptions caused by U.S. sanctions on Iran and political instability in Venezuela could also play a major role in market dynamics.

The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) added to the uncertatinty as it cut its growth forecasts for the United Kingdom economy from 1.4% to 1.3% this year and to 1.4% from 1.5% for 2019. It appears that OPEC could increase production, and if they do that will bring a lot more supply onto the marketplace. The renewal of Iranian sanctions threaten to disrupt the country's exports later this year and Venezuela's production is also under threat as its economic woes continue.

Iran will not accept Saudi Arabia's proposal to increase crude output of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran's representative to the OPEC was quoted as saying Tuesday. These numbers suggest that United States and handful of other non-OPEC countries will more than meet global demand. Output in Saudi Arabia jumped by 85,500 barrels a day, but was partly offset by production outages in Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya. On one side, under the USA influence [either in the form of alliance or sanctions] Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC-member Russian Federation, which had a significant role in reaching the deal, are said to be willing to ease the production cap and use some of their spare capacities.

"It is due to various circumstances in global (oil) market and mainly the value of Indian Rupee has reduced in comparison to US Dollar, which has led to a surge in oil prices".

China said it would retaliate immediately by suspending previous trade agreements with Trump's administration and slapping duties on American exports, including crude oil. The risk is that Saudi Arabia will choose to go it alone, boosting output.

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