Wednesday, 22 November, 2017

Goldman: US-Iran Standoff Is A Long-Term Threat To Oil Supply

Gold Daily Gold Daily
Kelvin Reese | 19 October, 2017, 00:44

This is months after of range-bound trading during which OPEC-led supply cuts buoyed crude prices but rising US output capped markets.

USA crude rose 0.82 percent to $51.87 per barrel and Brent was last at $57.86, up 1.21 percent on the day.

Crude oil has edged past US$52 and is now trading at US$52.20. Kurdistan, which voted almost unanimously to become an independent state in a controversial referendum late last month, exports nearly 600,000 barrels of oil a day.

In addition, the conflict in Iraq has shocked markets as it adds to growing strains between the United States and Iran.

The ongoing political friction between the U.S. and Iran also increased the global risk for oil.

Oil extended gains as signs of declining USA stockpiles pointed to healthy demand while investors weighed disruptions to supply because of global geopolitical tensions.

Asian shares advanced to new highs on Monday following Wall Street's lead, while US oil futures jumped to hover near a six-month peak as escalating tensions between the Iraqi government and Kurdish forces threatened supply. "If they are, we expect that several hundred thousand barrels of Iranian exports would be immediately at risk", Goldman Sachs said in a research note on Tuesday, as quoted by CNBC.

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Asked about the conflict in Iraq between the government and separatist Kurds and the USA decision to decertify its nuclear deal with Iran, Birol said it is premature to assess the impact of these geopolitical risks on oil markets.

Various analysts are also revising the oil price predictions as the global crude market continues to tighten.

Much of the area in northern Iraq is important oil-production territory, including the city of Kirkuk, which the Iraqi army took on Monday.

The euro slipped 0.2 percent to $1.1799 and was poised for its third straight day of losses on lingering concerns about the eurozone after a conservative Austrian leader secured a victory in parliamentary elections at the weekend. U.S. President Donald Trump on October 13 refused to certify Iran's compliance over a nuclear deal, leaving Congress 60 days to decide on further action against Tehran.

OPEC and other key producers chose to curb oil output by 1.8 million bpd from January this year to March next year.

The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry trade group, will release USA weekly petroleum inventory data at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT), ahead of the government's report on Wednesday.

“We see Brent averaging $54 this quarter and $52.50 per barrel in 1H18, compared with our previous forecasts of $50 and $49.50 per barrel, respectively, ” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.

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