Geopolitical risks and negative bond yields will continue to spur demand
06 May, 2017, 03:05
Jewellery demand in the first quarter was marginally up at 481 tonne from Q1 2016.
Inflows to exchange-traded gold funds shrank to a fraction of the year-ago period.
When see from a value perspective, the demand increased 18 percent to Rs 32,420 crore from Rs 27,540 crore in in the corresponding period previous year, according to the World Gold Council (WGC) that released its "Gold Demand Trends" report on Thursday.
According to the latest Gold Demand Trends report by the World Gold Council (WGC), Indian consumers enjoyed a period of relative stability in the domestic market.
The first-quarter drop in central bank buying is reported to feed into an 18 per cent fall in global gold demand. Continued currency weakness in Turkey meant that the price of gold in lira rose more than in any other currency during Q1 (+12%), undermining the jewellery demand.
"There is also quite high levels of recycling [in Egypt] partly because people want to get their hands on cash", said Mr Hewitt.
In Turkey, jewelry demand dropped to a four-year low of 7.7 tons due to high gold prices and the recent referendum process.
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This will not have an immediate impact on the price of gold, but it will support investment sentiment, Hewitt said.
A focus on capital outflows may have been weighing on the Chine2se central bank's interest in gold, the WGC's head of market intelligence Alistair Hewitt said. Bar and coin investment, however, was healthy at 289.8t ( 9% y-o-y), while demand firmed slightly in both the jewellery and technology sectors.
Global jewellery demand in 1Q17 was 480.9 tons, about 1 percent more than 1Q16. It also states that while demand remained fairly flat overall, there were variances at the country level, with gains concentrated in India, Iran and the US. Despite that, notional demand was average historically and price weakness likely will be limited, RBC said.
"Elsewhere the picture was less rosy: central bank demand was down and jewellery demand is still in the doldrums, although there are signs of improvement, especially from India where the gradual remonetisation of the economy is supporting the jewellery market".
The outlook for India's gold demand is robust, but GST remains a cause of concern. Demand from general industry rose one per cent to 12.1 tonnes, but dentistry demand fell five per cent to 4.3 tonnes. Trade in gold and jewellery reached Dh65.6bn past year, accounting for 27 per cent of the total gold trade.
The US is still the largest single holder of official gold with 8 133 t; Germany is second with 3 377 t and the International Monetary Fund third with 2 814 t.
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